Bitcoin Enters New Bull Market with Reduced Volatility
Bitcoin appears to be entering a new bull market phase, marking a shift away from the extreme volatility that has historically defined its cycles. The latest downturn, which saw Bitcoin drop from a peak of $124,824 in October 2025 to a low of $58,525 by June 2026, was significantly milder compared to previous cycles. The 53% decline contrasts sharply with earlier drops of 84.5% in 2013-2015 and 76.7% in 2021-2022, suggesting that Bitcoin's price swings are narrowing.
Several key indicators support the view that the bear market has ended. Bitcoin has reclaimed its 50-week moving average, closing near $81,200 in late September and continuing to rise. On-chain metrics, such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, also point to a recovery in valuation momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin has held above its realized price throughout this bear market, a first in its history.
The market's evolution towards a more mature state is likely driven by a broader and more patient ownership base. Long-term holders now account for roughly 83% of the circulating supply, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies have maintained their exposure despite the downturn. This resilience suggests a more stable investment base, reducing the severity of price swings.
While the traditional four-year cycle may still influence Bitcoin's price movements, its impact appears to be weakening. The latest cycle saw a smaller upside multiple and a shorter downturn, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually outgrowing its boom-and-bust pattern. Sharp corrections may still occur, but the market is expected to advance with a more durable foundation and less destructive reversals.