Bitcoin Enters October Beset by Thin Liquidity, ETF Decline, Iran Tensions

Bitcoin's entry into October is marked by four pressing concerns that could impact its price chart. These include thin liquidity, reduced demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), ongoing tensions in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and a looming deadline for creditor repayments from Mt. Gox.

The largest cryptocurrency has historically performed well during this month, closing higher in 10 out of the last 13 Octobers with a median gain of 12.73%, according to Coinglass data. However, as it stands now, Bitcoin is up only 1.98% so far this month.

Analyst Darkfost points to the stablecoin market cap's decline by $14 billion since May, indicating significant outflows, but notes that supply has slowly begun to recover, with a $4 billion rebound since September lifting the total to about $270 billion. However, he considers this recovery too timid to propel Bitcoin towards new highs.

Large holders are cautiously adding capital, with wallets sending over $1 million in stablecoins to Binance experiencing 30-day inflows of $30.5 billion, a 40% increase from the previous month. Nonetheless, this is still far below the $61 billion peak reached at October 2025.

ETF buyers have also stepped back, with spot Bitcoin ETFs drawing in only $51.25 million across four sessions following their largest daily inflow of almost a year on September 21, when they took in $998.95 million. Trading activity has thinned as well, with daily value traded falling from $4.57 billion to $1.97 billion between these dates.

The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US is already affecting Bitcoin's price, having rallied towards $87,000 before a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz erased its gain. The pressure could build later this month as Trump expects to resume bombing Iran after the November 3 midterms.