Bitcoin Enters October with Risks and Opportunities Ahead
Bitcoin's price entered October at a 9% premium to its close on the day of the Fed rate hike, defying historical trends. August and September typically see declines, but this year Bitcoin gained 25% in August and 6% in September.
The past two months have broken the script of history, which could favor October as a green month for Bitcoin. According to CryptoRank data, October rose in 10 out of the past 15 years with a median gain of 11.2%. After a green September, it has risen four times out of six.
However, there are risks building. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been buying for seven straight sessions since September 17, taking in $2.98 billion. But this streak is fading faster than August's, which ran nine sessions and saw $3.04 billion invested.
Long-term holders are still in play, with the Hodler Net Position Change metric turning green on August 31 after staying red from August 2 to August 30. This indicates that holders are buying during the pause in ETF flows.
A liquidation map shows a risk building as well. On Binance, positions from the past seven days lean short with $1.96 billion above the price against $1.03 billion of longs below. A small push higher could squeeze these shorts.