Bitcoin Enters Price Discovery Phase as On-Chain Metrics Signal $87,800 Target

Bitcoin has been trading near $79,300 as it enters a regime transition phase. The market is shifting from repair to institutional price discovery, according to on-chain metrics.

The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Crossover indicator has crossed above its 365-day moving average, similar to past recovery phases in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023. This crossover typically marks the boundary between market capitulation and structural repair.

The Risk Index recently tested its primary descending trendline before turning lower, indicating a release of systemic stress and absorption of downside risk. Miners' Position Index (MPI) remains below 0, showing low miner selling pressure, creating a clear runway for incoming buy liquidity.

The EFIS model currently places Bitcoin's flow-implied price near $87,800, roughly 10% above spot prices (~$79,000). This gap marks the critical boundary where spot prices reconnect with institutional demand accumulated through the ETF market. A decisive reclaim of $87.8K would confirm that spot prices have caught up with the institutional structure beneath the rally.