Bitcoin Eyes $93,000 on Easing Yields and Inflation

Bitcoin’s recent price movements have been influenced by shifting expectations around Federal Reserve rate hikes, with the odds of an October increase dropping from 64% to 23%. Lacie Zhang, Research Lead at Bitget Wallet, suggests that Bitcoin could reach $93,000 if Treasury yields ease and inflation cools, but only with sustained buying support.

Zhang emphasizes that while ETF inflows have been supportive, they have not been strong enough to push Bitcoin above the $87,000 resistance level. She identifies $87,400 as a critical price point that buyers need to reclaim on a daily or weekly closing basis to confirm a breakout. Without stronger spot purchases and continued ETF inflows, the advance may not be sustainable.

Downside risks include stronger-than-expected inflation data or renewed rate-hike expectations, which could push Bitcoin toward $84,000 or even $82,000. Zhang’s forecast depends on both financial conditions and market demand, with lower rate expectations and ETF subscriptions alone not sufficient to confirm the move.

The recent weakening of U.S. employment data has played a significant role in reducing rate-hike expectations. As of October 5, the CME FedWatch probability of an October rate increase was roughly 23%, down from 64% a week earlier. This shift has provided a boost to Bitcoin, but Zhang cautions that upcoming inflation figures will be a separate test.