Bitcoin Faces $16 Billion Deribit Options Expiry, Call Dominance Reigns

Bitcoin trades at around $86,300 ahead of the massive Deribit options expiry on Friday, worth approximately $16 billion. The exchange has a significant call dominance with roughly $9.6 billion in open interest for calls and about $6.4 billion for puts, with calls making up 60% of the book.

The largest call wall is estimated to be at $95,000 by ByKaranteli's open-source gamma model, while the largest put wall is at $60,000. The same model places the zero-gamma level near $71,000 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.52. With Bitcoin currently trading in the $86,000 zone, the market is considered to be inside the stabilizing zone where dealers sell rallies and buy dips.

Deribit's DVOL index stands at 38.1, which ByKaranteli classifies as very low across five years of history. Friday's at-the-money implied volatility was also 38.1%, with skew near neutral. The rough band for a one-standard-deviation move through Friday is estimated to be between $83,600 and $89,100.

Ledn co-founder Mauricio Di Bartolomeo expects the same call-block dynamic on the Deribit book at $85,000 and $100,000, describing September's quarterly expiry as a two-act event. He notes that hedges on Deribit are expected to unwind or roll into October and December expiries once the contracts settle.