Bitcoin Faces $16 Billion Options Expiry, Three Macro Tests in One Trading Day

Bitcoin's price is facing three tests on Friday, September 25. The most immediate challenge comes from the expiration of $16 billion in Bitcoin options on Deribit at 08:00 UTC. This represents about 60% calls and 40% puts, with a total notional value of $9.6 billion for calls and $6.4 billion for puts.

Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, co-founder of Ledn, describes this as the second half of an expiry cycle that began on Wall Street last week. According to him, the quarterly expirations are a two-act event. He notes that the book is heavily tilted toward calls and expects the Deribit book to inherit the same setup.

The largest call wall at $95,000 and the largest put wall at $60,000 could be affected by this expiry, with dealers rolling into October and December contracts. If the move continues, Di Bartolomeo predicts that these large call blocks will become active on the Deribit book.

In addition to the options expiration, two US economic releases - durable goods orders at 12:30 UTC and the University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment reading at 14:00 UTC - are also scheduled for Friday. CME's September Bitcoin futures will settle against the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate at 15:00 UTC.

The market is currently pricing a moderate move, with Deribit's DVOL index standing at 38.1 on September 22 and Friday's at-the-money implied volatility also at 38.1%. Skew is near neutral, with 25-delta puts and calls both priced near 39.2%.