Bitcoin Faces Crucial $68,300 Test Amid Prolonged Bear Market Fears

Bitcoin's recent price action has it trading near $68,300, a level that historically separates mid-cycle corrections from prolonged bear markets. According to analyst Rekt Capital, a weekly close below this level followed by a failed retest of the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) triggered 'bearish acceleration,' meaning steeper and more sustained price declines.

Last week's drop below $60,000 broke through both the 200-week EMA and simple moving average, though the weekly candle recovered. To avoid repeating this pattern, Bitcoin must close the week above $68,300.

Oversold readings offer a counterpoint to further losses, with Bitcoin's Mayer Multiple - the ratio of price to the 200-day moving average - dropping to approximately 0.6. This has historically coincided with strong long-term buying opportunities, and Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, called it 'one of the best buy signals in Bitcoin history.' However, further downside is possible.

The technical debate plays out against a deteriorating macro backdrop, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shedding roughly $6 billion in net outflows since November 2025. Institutional demand has reversed materially, with ETFs becoming net sellers in 2026 after purchasing 46,000 BTC during the same period last year.