Bitcoin Faces Crucial Tests in October as Price Outlook Remains Uncertain

Bitcoin's price outlook for October 2026 is uncertain, with several key tests ahead. The cryptocurrency has gained 43.8% over the past 90 days, but remains well below its record high of $126,080. The Federal Reserve's October 27-28 meeting could be a major focus for the cryptocurrency market, with a 64% probability of another quarter-point interest rate increase. Higher oil prices above $100 a barrel could add to inflation pressures, potentially giving the Fed another reason to raise interest rates.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have also slowed, with almost $1 billion flowing into the funds on September 21, but only $134 million on September 25. The cryptocurrency's recent trading range has left several price levels in focus, with $87,397 as the key upside level identified by 24/7 Wall St. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick continues to maintain a $100,000 year-end 2026 target for Bitcoin, despite the challenges facing the cryptocurrency.

The Fed's decision to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 could weigh on Bitcoin, as it does not pay interest or dividends. However, a pause in rate increases could provide support for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin's ETF market is also showing signs of losing some momentum, with slower inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.