Bitcoin Faces September Rate Hike Clouds After August's 25% Surge

Bitcoin's August surge of 25% has been followed by a significant test in September as Federal Reserve rate hike expectations have intensified sharply. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole symposium pushed market pricing for a September rate hike to nearly 70%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly touched 4.798%. The core driver of Bitcoin's August rebound was not merely speculative buying, but rather a macro narrative centered on the 'dollar debasement trade.' The U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would raise the per-operation cap for long-term Treasury liquidity buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion.

As of September 1, Bitcoin's price has pulled back to around $77,000, a notable cooldown from the swing high set in August. Historically, September has been one of Bitcoin's weakest months, with long-term average returns hovering between -3% and -4%, and an average decline of approximately 2.2% since 2014.

Despite intensifying macro headwinds, institutional capital has not fully exited. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) remains the primary entry point for capital. Between August 17 and 27, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling slightly over $3 billion.