Bitcoin Faces Steep Climb to Meet $125,000 and New High Predictions

Analysts at Bernstein and Michaël van de Poppe have issued bullish predictions for Bitcoin (BTC), but the cryptocurrency faces a steep climb to meet these targets. Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by December 31, 2026, a 45% increase from its current price of $86,093 as of October 5. Meanwhile, van de Poppe anticipates a new all-time high by January 2027, requiring a 46% rise from the current level.

Bernstein’s prediction is grounded in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, mining costs, and currency debasement. The firm believes the current downturn since October 2025 is temporary and that the next peak will occur in 2027. Van de Poppe, however, expects a 20% to 40% correction before a new high, which could delay the surge until late 2026 or early 2027.

Historical data shows Bitcoin has gained 45% or more in the fourth quarter in seven of the past 13 years, with significant gains in years like 2013 and 2017. However, recent years have seen weaker performance, including a 23% drop in the fourth quarter of 2025. The median return for the fourth quarter stands at about 48%, slightly above what the current predictions require.

Both predictions are ambitious, given Bitcoin’s 30% decline over the past year and the limited time remaining. If Bitcoin does not reach $125,000 by December 31, Bernstein’s year-end call will not materialize, though their mid-2027 target of $150,000 remains. Similarly, van de Poppe’s timeframe for a new high will close if Bitcoin does not surpass its record high by the end of January 2027.