Bitcoin Faces Weekend Volatility as Hornuz Tensions Rise

Bitcoin's price has been hovering near $65,000 ahead of the weekend, caught in the middle of two conflicting macro forces. The US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, which could reduce pressure for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are reviving inflation fears, which could lift oil prices and impact Bitcoin.

The US economy's weak job numbers have led to a decrease in the odds of a September Fed rate hike from 57% to about 44%. The two-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.193%, and the 10-year yield has dropped to 4.643%. As a result, the dollar has weakened.

Despite the bullish setup for Bitcoin, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added more than 20,000 BTC since July 29. US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $763.7 million this week, their strongest pace since April. Whales are buying, and ETFs are absorbing supply, but the options market is pricing a quiet weekend.

The current range's ceiling is around $69,000, which is the short-term holders' average acquisition cost. Deribit's implied Bitcoin volatility index (DVOL) shows that options markets are pricing a quiet weekend, sitting near 35, down from roughly 90 earlier this year. The options market implies a two-day move of about 2.59%, or roughly $1,676, putting the weekend's expected range between $63,000 and $66,400.

The trigger level in the resistance band is around $67,300, which is about 4% above the current price. Bitcoin needs an 8.2% move to reach $70,000 and a 7.3% drop to reach $60,000; both moves would require more than a two-day swing.

The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global oil trade, with over 20 million barrels per day (b/d) passing through it. Any disruption could lift crude prices quickly, reviving inflation fears. The IEA's outlook assumes the strait will fully reopen by the third quarter, but a longer delay risks tipping global LNG trade into its first annual supply decline since 2012.