Bitcoin Flashes Key Signal Confirming Bear Market Lows
Bitcoin has been rising steadily since August, appreciating roughly 30% and staying in the green for the month of September with gains of 3.33%. The largest cryptocurrency has also flashed a key signal, suggesting that the bear market lows for this cycle may be in.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, flagged the close and pointed to what it has meant in earlier cycles. He noted that regaining the 50-week moving average has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are in.
Historical data provides some context for Thorn's view. In a research note, he identified 13 instances in completed bear markets when Bitcoin crossed back above its 50-week moving average. Only two of those instances were followed by another lower low, with both occurring during the 2021-2022 decline.
Bitcoin lost the 50-week moving average during the week of November 16, 2025, and then reached a bear market low of $58,525 on June 30, 2026, marking a 53.1% decline from its October 2025 record of $124,824. Since then, Bitcoin has gained 39%. Sunday's weekly close came 3.0% above the 50-week moving average at $78,786 and 23.9% above the 200-week average at $65,487.
The recovery above both levels strengthens the case that the low could be in. However, Thorn also notes that the latest move has not eliminated the possibility of another decline.