Bitcoin Forecasters See $500,000 Peak Amid Rising Interest Rates

Bernstein's analysts have updated their outlook on Bitcoin and Strategy shares, predicting significant price movements in the coming years.

The analysts expect Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of 2026, a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027, and around $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029. However, they also foresee a bull case scenario where institutional capital rotates more aggressively into Bitcoin amid currency debasement, leading to a potential peak of $500,000 in 2029.

Bernstein's core thesis is that the macro regime has shifted, with rising interest rates and government debt driving demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin. They expect monetary authorities to choose currency debasement over fiscal stress, which would further boost demand for Bitcoin.

The analysts also noted that around 59% of Bitcoin's supply has not moved over the past 12 months, limiting the drawdown from the October 2025 peak. Strategy, a company that holds 4% of total Bitcoin supply, may start actively buying Bitcoin again if its shares rebound to $100.