Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Debunked: Analyst Gambardello Shifts Focus to Economic Patterns
Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello has abandoned his long-held view of the 'four-year cycle' in Bitcoin's price movements. He now believes that global economic expansion and contraction patterns have a stronger influence on the crypto market than calendar-based cycles.
Gambardello notes that Bitcoin's past rises and falls show a correlation between its price movements and the business cycle, tracked by indicators like the ISM PMI. This means that Bitcoin tends to weaken during periods of economic contraction and strengthen when the economy is expanding.
The analyst points out that many past Bitcoin halvings coincided with periods of economic recession to expansion, suggesting that the perception of a four-year cycle may have originated from this. Gambardello also notes that strong inflows into spot ETFs, expectations of a crypto-friendly political environment, and high market interest played a significant role in Bitcoin's previous all-time high.