Bitcoin Gains May Be Smaller This Cycle, Says CryptoQuant CEO

CryptoQuant's CEO Ju Ki-young believes that Bitcoin's gains in this current bull market will be limited to around 3-5 times, a far cry from the 10-fold rallies seen in past cycles. According to an X post by Ju, the market structure has changed significantly since then. With the market now dominated by institutional investors and having grown exponentially, extreme volatility is easing.

Ju pointed out that on-chain indicators such as the PnL index are showing a more subdued peak and forming bottoms at relatively high levels of holder profitability. The MVRV indicator, which calculates market capitalization divided by realized market capitalization, has not fallen below 1 even once in this cycle.

This means that while some investors may have taken losses, holders as a whole did not fall into unrealized loss. Ju also mentioned an increase in realized market capitalization as a signal of fresh inflows and noted that existing whale investors have stopped selling. Large long positions built by whale traders in the futures market near the bottom are another sign of the trend.