Bitcoin Gains Seen in Past Performance Boost Crypto Purchases

A new Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper has shed light on how past gains in Bitcoin influence people's likelihood to buy cryptocurrency. The study, which involved a randomized experiment, found that showing households information about Bitcoin's performance can shift their intentions and actual purchasing decisions.

Researchers tracked the financial behavior of households over two waves of data collection in 2025. They discovered a significant gap between crypto owners' and nonowners' expectations for future returns, with owners forecasting higher annual returns than nonowners.

The study's findings suggest that expected returns are a strong predictor of crypto ownership, outperforming demographic factors such as age, income, gender, or overall wealth. Each additional percentage point in a household's return expectation was tied to an 0.8-percentage-point rise in the likelihood that household actually owned crypto.

The researchers also conducted an experiment where participants were shown one of several pieces of financial information, including Bitcoin's trailing performance. Those who saw either version raised their desired crypto allocation, with some shifting directly from cash or savings balances to crypto.