Bitcoin Hits Critical Price Level as Bull Market or Bear Recovery Looms

Bitcoin has reached a crucial price level, trading as high as $87,392 on September 21st, its highest point since January 29th. This marks the beginning of a potential bull market or a bear market recovery that could eventually reverse.

The recovery from the July 1st low of $57,803 is being supported by both demand engines: spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries. The ETF inflows reached $999 million on September 21st and $714.7 million on September 22nd, marking the largest single-day influx since October 6th last year.

However, according to cycle metrics, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a transition rather than a confirmed bull market. The supply in profit has risen to 78.2 percent, but needs to hold above 75 percent through the first correction. Long-term holder SOPR (sale price divided by cost) has moved above 0.77, indicating that holders are selling at breakeven.

The key confirmation signals from here are supply in profit holding above 75 percent, long-term holder SOPR moving above 1.0 while price holds, and continued ETF and corporate buying above their respective cost bases.