Bitcoin Holds Above 85K Amid Macro Risks and Consolidation

Bitcoin (BTC) remains above $85,000 on Tuesday, showing signs of recovery but lacking the momentum needed for a stronger upward push. The recent rebound saw BTC reach $87,220 on Friday before pulling back near $84,000. Crypto exchange Bitfinex attributed this move to improved liquidity and renewed risk appetite but noted that sustained growth requires stronger participation from spot buyers.

Bitfinex warned that without a decisive catalyst, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate, particularly above the $84,000 level, where 75% of supply is in profit. The firm emphasized the need for ETF flows to return to late September levels to drive a more durable advance.

Wintermute highlighted the rising correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, cautioning that macroeconomic conditions could pose a higher risk than crypto-specific factors. The firm noted that Bitcoin trades as a high-beta version of the S&P 500 in high-correlation regimes, often falling with equities while struggling to match upward movements.

Technically, Bitcoin has broken out of the $76,000 to $82,500 range and confirmed $82,500 as support. The next major resistance zone is between $90,000 and $95,000, where Bitcoin previously faced rejection. Wintermute suggested that macroeconomic factors, particularly Treasury yields, will play a crucial role in Bitcoin's next move, with the November 3 US midterm elections potentially easing long-end yields and supporting a rally.