Bitcoin Holds Near $86k as Derivatives Positioning Eases

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade near $86,000 on Monday, maintaining its position in the upper part of a two-week range after a Sunday rally pushed the weekly close 2% higher than the previous one. The aggressive positioning that followed the breakout two weeks ago has since eased, with futures open interest retreating back into its range and options open interest dropping post the quarterly expiry.

Spot and ETF demand presented a more subdued picture. Spot takers ended the week as net buyers, though momentum cooled within its range. ETF demand, which surged last week, saw a significant drop in weekly net flow, remaining positive but much smaller. Trading volume for ETFs sits near its low band, while the ETF MVRV moved above its high band, indicating that the average ETF holder is carrying unusually large profits.

On-chain activity showed a broad pickup, with active addresses and fees surpassing their high bands alongside transfer volume. New capital continues to flow in, as evidenced by the monthly change in realized cap staying well above its band and the hot capital share climbing further. The ratio of short-term to long-term holder supply also rose, entering the upper part of its range.

Profitability remains stretched, with nearly three-quarters of Bitcoin's supply in profit. Both short-term holder unrealized gains and realized profit-taking are well above their high bands. Overall, price gains have been held steady as derivatives positioning eased and ETF demand cooled, while on-chain activity, new capital inflow, and profit-taking all remain elevated.