Bitcoin Holds Near $86K as Treasury Yields Near 24-Year High

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $86,000 on Monday, struggling to break past resistance near $86,570 as US markets opened. The 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.67%, nearing a 24-year high, while the 10-year yield settled at 5.31%. Analysts from QCP Capital noted ongoing volatility in bond markets, citing factors like high crude oil prices and sustained long-duration yields as obstacles to significant gains in risk assets.

Lacie Zhang, a Bitget Wallet analyst, suggested Bitcoin could target $90,000, $93,000 if Treasury yields decline and inflation eases. However, she emphasized that sustained momentum would require closing above $87,400 on a daily or weekly basis. Key support levels were identified at $84,000 and $82,000. Michaël van de Poppe, a market commentator, compared current conditions to past cycles, predicting Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before entering a consolidation phase.

The probability of an October interest rate hike dropped to 23%, down from 64%, following weaker-than-expected September employment data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US saw $2.65 billion in net inflows during September, with an additional $134 million in early October. Despite these inflows, Bitcoin failed to surpass current resistance levels. Glassnode reported that long-term Bitcoin holders remained profitable throughout the cycle, a rare occurrence in bear markets since 2015.

Zhang cautioned that stronger inflation data, rising oil prices, or hawkish Fed rhetoric could revive rate-hike speculation, potentially pushing Bitcoin back to $84,000. The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%, 4.00% in September, with projections for a year-end median rate of 4.1%.