Bitcoin Matches All Past Bear Market Bottom Patterns Says Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) has now matched the pattern of every past bear market bottom, according to Benjamin Cowen, a prominent crypto analyst. Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, outlined three key steps that historically mark the end of a bear market: the price sets a low and rallies, climbs above the 20-week moving average, and breaks the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin has completed all three, and Cowen cannot recall a similar setup ever failing.

Cowen admitted that the burden of proof has shifted to the bears, as the current rally has held gains unlike silver’s 2011 breakout, which reversed the next day. He previously bet that Bitcoin would stay below its May high this year, but the rally past that level proved him wrong. Cowen chose to acknowledge his mistake rather than argue against the breakout, stating, “I’d rather just kind of sit back and say, ‘All right, like I’m wrong.’”

The analyst sees a potential stock market correction as the main threat to Bitcoin’s rally. Historically, stocks have started sliding in late September during midterm years, which could drag crypto lower. However, Cowen does not expect a retreat from the $85,000 to $90,000 range to produce a new cycle low, as Bitcoin would still remain above its prior bottom. This cycle’s low in July was earlier than usual, as past bottoms typically occurred in the fourth quarter or once in the first.

Cowen also predicted that the 10-year Treasury yield, currently at 5.3%, will likely peak before mid-November, similar to the last two midterm years. The odds of an October Fed hike have dropped from 64% to 17.7% in a week, which Cowen interprets as bond traders worrying that the Fed is falling behind on inflation. For crypto, falling yields could ease pressure on risk assets and provide more room for Bitcoin’s rally to continue.