Bitcoin Mining's Electricity Use May Have Hit Peak
Economist Saifedean Ammous has published an essay arguing that Bitcoin mining's capital expenditure and electricity consumption may have already peaked. According to him, this is due to the mathematics of the halving and slower price appreciation.
Ammous tied his claim to the 50% cut in new coins every four years, stating that mining expands only while Bitcoin's expected real price growth exceeds roughly 18.92% a year. Once this hurdle is no longer cleared, miners at the margin reduce investment and power use.
The average pre-tax production cost of listed miners fell below cash breakeven in Q2 2026, with an average cost of $75,500 against a quarter-end BTC price of $58,400. This has driven equipment cancellations and a shift towards high-performance computing and AI colocation.