Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Fails to Signal Bear Market Bottom
The Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score failed to signal a bear market bottom for the first time in history, as the score remained positive during the June 2026 low. This cycle's price action was less consistent with previous patterns due to U.S. tariff announcements and geopolitical policy headlines that shifted risk sentiment.
The score has historically dropped below zero at major cycle bottoms, but this time it only fell to 0.18-0.22. The Z-Score recovered to roughly 0.99-1.04 by late September 2026, when Bitcoin traded near $83,000-$84,000.
Trump's administration tariff announcements and reversals created a more volatile macro backdrop in 2025-2026, moving away from the cleaner cycle dynamics of previous eras. The largest crypto liquidation event on record occurred on October 10, 2025, after Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports.