Bitcoin Nears Cost Basis Threshold, Raising Risk of Break-Even Selling Pressure

Bitcoin is trading near the average cost basis of short-term holders, which has historically served as a pivot between profit-taking and capitulation. According to on-chain analyst Axel AdlerJr, the cryptocurrency's market price currently hovers around $64,952, approximately 3.8% below the short-term holder realized price of $67,523.

The short-term holder realized price is calculated using on-chain data and represents the average acquisition cost of coins moved within the last 155 days. When Bitcoin's market price falls below this level, it often indicates that recent buyers are sitting on unrealized losses. Conversely, when the price approaches this threshold from above, as it does now, it can trigger a wave of break-even selling.

Bitcoin has repeatedly attempted to reclaim the $67,523 level over the past 284 days but has fallen back below it on 279 of those days. This persistent resistance suggests that the market has yet to build sufficient momentum to sustain a move above this key psychological and technical marker.