Bitcoin Needs $63K Monthly Close to Confirm End of Bear Market

Bitcoin's price action in recent months has left traders wondering whether the bear market has finally ended. According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, a monthly close above $63,000 would confirm that the bottom is in.

This level holds significant importance as it marks a key resistance zone and aligns with previous cycle highs and moving average clusters that have historically acted as barriers. A sustained monthly close above this mark would signal strong buying pressure overcoming selling resistance.

However, July's monthly close fell short of the $63,000 threshold, leaving the market in uncertainty. Thielen currently favors long positions but has a plan to shift to neutral if Bitcoin breaks below key support levels and moving averages.

The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are critical indicators for traders, with a break below them potentially signaling a shift in momentum and triggering further selling. Macro factors, particularly the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, also play a significant role, as rising yields could lead to downward pressure on BTC prices.

The potential supply overhang from miners and corporate treasuries is another concern, with around 100,000 BTC held in potential sell-side supply by companies pivoting to AI businesses. This could cap price gains or cause temporary dips even if demand remains strong.