Bitcoin Onchain Transfer Estimates Vary Sixfold Depending on Measurement Methodology

A recent Bank for International Settlements (BIS) working paper has found that estimates of Bitcoin onchain transfer value can vary by as much as sixfold, depending on how researchers treat transaction outputs.

The study, which analyzed data from 2009 to 2026, including approximately 1.3 billion transactions and 3.6 billion transaction outputs, used three different methods to calculate transfer value. The upper estimate counts the value of all outputs, while the adjusted measure removes outputs sent back to the sending address, which researchers treated as likely change.

The conservative lower estimate removes identified self-transfers or, when none can be identified, subtracts the transaction's largest output under the assumption that smaller outputs represent the economic transfer. Applying these different methods produced gaps of up to sixfold in monthly estimates of Bitcoin onchain transfer value.