Bitcoin Options Market Shows Strong Bias Towards Upside Bets Ahead of Fed Decision

Bitcoin's options market has seen a significant shift in positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision. According to DWF Labs, the end-of-September options expiry holds 130,670 BTC of open interest, compared to 79,003 BTC for August.

This is largely due to quarterly expiries, with September and December together holding 59.3% of all open interest. Martin Lee from DWF Labs notes that most of the gap has nothing to do with the Fed, as traders often roll positions into these quarters.

However, a closer look at the data reveals some interesting trends. The top five strikes account for 31% of September's open interest, similar to December and March. This suggests routine quarterly positioning rather than an aggressive bet on the Fed.

The call-heavy skew in the options market has been validated by real spot demand, with US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in $1.92 billion last week. This has led some to predict that Bitcoin will push towards the $82,000 to $100,000 range if the debasement trade extends.