Bitcoin Outlook Turns Cautiously Optimistic Ahead of Q4
The historically-reliable 4-year halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin's bear market may soon be coming to an end, if it hasn't already. The outlook for Bitcoin in Q4 is turning cautiously optimistic on the back of renewed ETF purchases, compelling valuations, and an improvement in buy-and-hold behavior among investors.
The balance of the risks for Bitcoin is gradually shifting to the topside, with the near-term bias outright bullish above the $80K round handle. The growth rate of fiat money in the financial system has slowed in recent months, but as long as the global supply of money continues to increase, the theme of 'hard money' or a hedge against fiat currency debasement could help support Bitcoin's price.
The proportion of Bitcoin that has been held for at least a year has recovered off the late-2025 lows to rise back above 63%. This measure moves relatively slowly, but any renewed selling from longer-term 'HODLers' may offset inflows into ETFs as we move through Q4.
Taking these diverse forms of analysis in totality, the outlook for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter is turning cautiously optimistic. Money supply growth remains in positive territory, albeit amidst a trend toward rising central bank interest rates, and longer-term valuation measures remain compelling.