Bitcoin Outlook Turns Cautiously Optimistic as Halving Cycle Nears End
The outlook for Bitcoin is turning cautiously optimistic as it enters Q4 2026. The historically-reliable 4-year halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin's bear market may soon be coming to an end, or has already ended.
The rally in August marked a significant shift in sentiment, with the price reaching the current level of $80K. This is a key indicator that we may have reached the peak of the last cycle at the start of Q4 2025 and are now nearing the transition from a bear market to a recovery.
From a technical perspective, the balance of risks for Bitcoin has shifted to the topside, with a near-term bias that is outright bullish above the $80K round handle. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, which compares the current price to the price where each Bitcoin was last traded, has bounced to 0.8, closer to the typical bear market bottom zone at 0.0 than the late 2024 peak above 3.0.
Additionally, the growth rate of fiat money in the financial system has slowed, and the year-over-year growth in M2 has dropped toward 6% from prior highs near 12%. This could help support Bitcoin's price as it continues to grow.