Bitcoin Price Divergence Suggests End of Bear Market Nears

Bitcoin's current price is roughly 50% below its all-time high set in October, and more than 40 weeks into the downturn, four separate long-term indicators are converging, suggesting that this bear market may be nearing its end rather than its beginning. One indicator is the power law pricing model, which has held an impressive 96% accuracy throughout Bitcoin's history. The current price is tracking close to the lower boundary of this range, but it remains at the extreme low end.

Another indicator is a slow-moving weekly reading measuring the Nasdaq's value relative to Bitcoin using a 14-week relative strength index. This threshold has only been reached four times since 2010: in 2015, 2019, 2022, and now. The current reading of 72 is the highest on record and has persisted for over 24 weeks, longer than any prior instance.

Bitcoin's most oversold reading against gold also suggests a potential bottom may be near. In February 2026, gold reached its most overbought level against Bitcoin in history, making this current reading of Bitcoin being more oversold against the metal significant. Prior readings near these levels have historically appeared close to major Bitcoin lows.

Bitcoin's realized price, its network-wide cost basis, currently sits near $53,000. This estimate tends to understate the true figure somewhat due to lost coins and Satoshi-era holdings that have never moved. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has both touched and briefly traded below its realized price during the final stages of a bear market.

Past bear markets have lasted roughly 60 weeks, and this one is currently at 40 weeks, putting it three-quarters of the way through its historical time-based length. If the pattern holds, a low could form around November, though only three completed cycles exist for comparison, limiting confidence in timing.