Bitcoin Price Faces Make-or-Break Moment as US Inflation Data Looms

Bitcoin's price action is likely to be influenced by this week's US inflation data, which could put the average ETF buyer back in losses if yields rise.

The estimated profitability of the average Bitcoin ETF holder has been closely watched as the cryptocurrency's price fluctuates. According to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, a decline of about 2.2% from mid-$83,000 would reach $81,722, which is the estimated cost basis for the average ETF holder.

Individual investors have different purchase prices, and a move through $81,722 would make their trading decisions worth watching. A recent Glassnode report placed a differently measured ETF-complex break-even near $86,000.

The upcoming inflation data releases, including the PCE figure, will be closely watched by traders. If a hotter reading lifts yields and Bitcoin trades below $81,722, the average position under Seyffart's estimate would be back in loss territory. On the other hand, if a softer reading pulls yields lower, Bitcoin could test Glassnode's $84,000-$85,000 zone.