Bitcoin Price Hangs in Balance Ahead of Fed Meeting

Bitcoin's price has recovered sharply in the past week, but still remains 33.5% below its October 2025 high of $126,080. The market capitalization is around $1.68 trillion, and turnover over the past 24 hours is around $40.6 billion.

The direction of expectations for the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting on October 27-28, 2026, plays a crucial role in determining the price movement. Industry services have found that roughly 65% of market participants are positioned for a 25 basis point increase to a range of 4.00 to 4.25%. However, an expected rate rise that arrives exactly as expected is considered 'a date worked through', and it's not the rate itself but whether the decision deviates from expectations that matters.

Two deadlines shape the coming weeks: the rate meeting at the end of October and the twelve-month holding period in your own portfolio. German investors have control over this aspect, as Bitcoin counts as an 'other asset' for tax purposes. A sale falls under the rules on private disposals in Section 23 of the German Income Tax Act.