Bitcoin Price Prediction Event Set for October 2026 on Robinhood Derivatives

On October 5, 2026, at 4pm EDT, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will be a key focus for traders and investors. The event is tied to a contract offered by Robinhood Derivatives, which uses CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) to determine the outcome. The final price will be calculated as the average of 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration.

Traders can bet on whether the price of Bitcoin will be above certain thresholds. For example, $85,500 or above is priced at 98¢, $85,600 or above at 88¢, $85,700 or above at 52¢, $85,800 or above at 12¢, and $85,900 or above at 2¢. Payouts are usually made within an hour of the event resolution.

Trading for this event is available 24 hours a day, except for a brief maintenance window from 3am to 5am ET on Thursdays. The contract resolves based on the official price determined by the RTI, and traders can either hold their positions or close them before the event resolves.

There are restrictions on who can trade these contracts. Persons employed by the source agencies or those holding material, non-public information about Bitcoin are prohibited from trading. The event is offered through various exchanges, including KalshiEX LLC and North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc.