Bitcoin Price Prediction Market Set for October 2026 Resolution
The Robinhood Crypto Prediction Market has issued a contract that will resolve on October 3, 2026, at 3pm EDT. The contract determines the outcome of the price of Bitcoin (BTC) at the specified time, using CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI) as the basis for the price. If the price of BTC is $84,200 or above, the contract resolves in favor of the prediction. The contract will pay out the difference in price between the prediction and the actual price, with a minimum payout of $1 per contract owned.
The contract has a unique feature in that it uses 60 RTI prices collected at the last minute before expiration to determine the official and final value of the price. This method ensures that the price used is an accurate representation of the market at the time of expiration.
It's essential to note that trading on the contract is restricted to certain individuals, including those employed by the Source Agencies and those who hold material, non-public information on the underlying asset.