Bitcoin Price Sensitive to Macro Signals as US Economic Data Looms

Bitcoin's price action has shown heightened sensitivity to macro headlines, particularly changes in US interest rate expectations. This trend became evident last week after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he would favor keeping rates unchanged if incoming data confirmed cooling inflation.

The probability of a Fed rate hike was repriced from 63% to 50%, and Bitcoin moved higher along with equities. However, the top crypto gave back gains after payroll data came in above expectations, reinforcing expectations of a resilient labor market.

Bitcoin traders are now focused on this week's US economic data releases, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could be volatility catalysts ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16. The Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act is also a key event to watch.

The report by K33 pointed out that growth in non-crypto perpetual products has led to structural changes in the crypto derivatives market. Binance's 30-day average volume for TradFi perpetuals surpassed the volume of its BTCUSDT perpetual on July 16, and although TradFi volumes have declined since August 16 while Bitcoin perpetual volumes have increased, TradFi activity remains higher on a 30-day average basis.