Bitcoin Rally Dubbed 'Early and Speculative' Due to Lack of Volume

The Bitcoin rally is being viewed as 'early and speculative' by Glassnode due to the lack of real trading volume, according to a recent report. The report notes that U.S. spot ETFs took in roughly $1 billion on each of two days in late September, with Sept. 21 marking the largest single-day inflow in nearly a year. However, since then, inflows have shrunk every trading day.

Sept. 21-22: ~$1 billion per day

Sept. 28: just $24 million

A return to inflows near that earlier pace would be the clearest sign of renewed demand. Long-term holders, those holding coins more than 155 days, nearly doubled their realized profit in the week to Sept. 29 compared to the breakout week.

The wall of sell orders between $85,000 and $85,500 on the Binance spot order book has tripled in size since it first appeared Sept. 24. Price has pushed into the lower half of that wall but hasn’t broken through. Two key support zones matter: Short-term holder cost basis: $73,300 (price trades ~13% above it) and True Market Mean: $77,200 (price trades ~8% above it).

With total Bitcoin volume across spot exchanges and ETFs combined averaging about $6.4 billion a day, Glassnode calls the rally 'early and speculative,' arguing broad demand hasn’t shown up yet. A sustained rise in volume while price holds above the True Market Mean would signal the uptrend gaining wider support.