Bitcoin Rally Needs Stronger ETF Flows to Reach 93000

Bitcoin's recent rally has been bolstered by diminishing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, but stronger market flows are needed to confirm a move toward $90,000-$93,000, says Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet.

On October 6, the probability of an October rate hike fell to about 19%, down from 51% a week earlier, following weaker-than-expected September payroll growth. Lower Treasury yields and signs of softer inflation could further support Bitcoin's upward momentum, according to Zhang.

While ETF demand remains supportive, it is not yet strong enough to drive a breakout. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.6 billion in September and $134 million in the first two trading days of October. However, Bitcoin's repeated failure to hold above $87,000 suggests that profit-taking and existing supply are absorbing institutional demand.

ETF flows have become choppy, with net inflows peaking at $999 million on September 21 before slowing sharply. Inflows alternated between $103 million on October 1 and $190 million on October 2, before swinging to $90 million in net redemptions on October 5. BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant Bitcoin ETF, with cumulative net inflows approaching $66 billion.

Zhang noted that a convincing breakout would require sustained ETF inflows, stronger spot buying, and a daily or weekly close above roughly $87,400. The next upside targets are $90,000 and $93,000, while $84,000 and $82,000 are key downside levels. Risks include stronger-than-expected inflation reports, hawkish Fed guidance, or rising long-term yields, which could push Bitcoin back toward $84,000.

At press time, Bitcoin fell back below $86,000 after reaching $86,698 earlier in the day, with most altcoins also declining. The last time BTC traded above $90,000 was in January.