Bitcoin Rally Towards $80K Gets Boost from Spot Demand

Bitcoin's recent rally towards $80,000 is gaining strength as it enters a key zone between $81,000 and $86,000, according to digital-asset trading firm QCP. The company notes that this rebound is backed by healthy market structure, with spot demand playing a significant role alongside ETF inflows and short covering.

QCP's analysis of derivatives data shows that the rally has not been driven by aggressive leveraged buying. Instead, open interest in Bitcoin-denominated futures fell from around 646,000 BTC to approximately 588,000 BTC during the rebound. This decline indicates that some futures positions were being closed as prices advanced.

The combination of spot purchases and short covering contributing more heavily than aggressive leveraged longs suggests a healthier market structure compared to other rapid crypto rallies. Options positioning has become more bullish, with call skew strengthening and the put-call ratio remaining below one. However, derivatives conditions remain below levels associated with heavily crowded positioning.

The macroeconomic environment has become more restrictive, with July headline PCE inflation reaching 3.7% annually and core PCE increasing 3.3%. This has led to an increased estimated probability of a September rate increase from the Fed, which slipped Bitcoin's price below $78,000.