Bitcoin Rebound Faces Heavy Resistance Ahead of Crucial Test

Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 33% from its July low of $57,800, but is still trading about 40% below its all-time high.

The current bear phase has lasted around 290 days under the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with a 51.20% drawdown that is milder than prior major bear cycles.

On-chain metrics and institutional flows point to a bullish recovery, but this remains unconfirmed, with the 365-day moving average near $82,300 as a pivotal resistance level.