Bitcoin Rebound Not Confirmed as Bear Market Bottom Says Binance Research

Bitcoin has surged 46.9% since hitting a low of $57,800 in July, but Binance Research warns that this rebound may not signal the end of the bear market. Historical data shows that in four out of five similar past instances, Bitcoin retested its lows after such recoveries. The current drawdown of 54.2% from its all-time high of $126,200 is less severe than previous bear markets, but when adjusted for volatility, the magnitude is comparable. Binance Research attributes this to declining volatility, stating that 'Bitcoin is not falling less, volatility itself is declining.'

The primary obstacle to further upside is the elevated 10-year US Treasury yield, hovering near 24-year highs. Rising long-term yields are also affecting equity markets, with the term premium, additional compensation for holding long-term bonds, driving much of the increase. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) notes that uncertainty around US fiscal policy and future rate hikes is expanding the term premium, while big tech companies issuing corporate bonds for AI investments may be pushing yields higher.

While US equities continue to rise on AI growth expectations, South Korean markets faced declines. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix weakened due to foreign selling and caution ahead of the end of share buyback programs. However, the KOSDAQ semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment sector surged 44.5% in August, September, driven by AI capex expansion expectations, showing a stark divergence from large caps. Samsung Electronics' preliminary Q3 earnings release on the 8th is expected to be a pivotal catalyst for market direction.

Analysts note that rising US long-term yields reduce foreign investor appetite for emerging markets, contributing to the decline in South Korean stocks. Despite this, the semiconductor upcycle triggered by AI demand is expected to continue until at least 2028, benefiting materials, parts, and equipment companies. The market will closely watch Samsung Electronics' earnings to gauge whether they can raise earnings estimates for Q4 and next year.