Bitcoin Reclaims Key Moving Averages, Alters Bear-Cycle Pattern

Bitcoin's recent price action may have altered its bear-cycle pattern after reclaiming key moving averages, according to K33. The cryptocurrency broke above its 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages, a structure historically associated with cycle bottoms.

K33 noted that every instance prior to 2026 occurred after BTC had already made its cycle low, with subsequent pushes higher following the reclaiming of major moving averages. The report highlighted that Bitcoin's recent 54% drawdown is shallower than the 77.5%-85% declines recorded in previous bear markets.

Bitcoin ETPs absorbed more than 14,000 BTC after breaking above its ETF cost basis for the first time since January. K33 emphasized that neither recent derivatives positioning nor market sentiment indicates meaningful near-term downside risk.