Bitcoin (BTC) showed signs of recovery on Wednesday, with derivatives positioning improving but facing resistance between $86,500 and $87,500. According to crypto exchange Bitfinex, Bitcoin defended its range lows despite attempts to break lower, with dip-buying supporting prices between $81,724 and $83,470. Futures open interest across major exchanges rose 4.2% to 645,410 BTC by October 20, indicating renewed positioning as prices recovered. Funding rates normalized to annualized levels of 7% to 9% during peak sessions, suggesting a moderate bias toward leveraged long positions.
Options positioning points to a constrained near-term trading range. The Friday expiry carries $1.23 billion in notional open interest, with a maximum pain price near $82,000. The October 30 monthly expiry represents $11.2 billion in notional open interest, with its implied one-standard-deviation range spanning $78,300 to $87,100.
Onchain analytics firm Glassnode identified sell orders between $86,500 and $87,500, alongside liquidation clusters near $85,000 and $87,000. Glassnode noted that a move toward $87,000 could gain speed as short positions are forced shut, but it would meet the asks on the order book at the same price. Realized profits have slowed to approximately half their pace during the week of September’s market high, suggesting reduced selling pressure from profitable holders.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows resumed on Monday with $526 million, marking the funds’ largest daily intake since September 22. The inflows turned weekly flows positive again, although ETF trading volume remained weak. Glassnode added that inflows that repeat on rising volume would show demand broadening beyond a single day.
The report also highlighted MSCI’s upcoming release of its final list of companies affected by new index rules for non-operating businesses, slated for November 11. Strategy was among the companies flagged in a preliminary assessment. Potential removal could force index-tracking funds to sell its shares. This is not the first time Strategy has faced the risk of a removal from MSCI indexes.