Bitcoin Recovery at $85,000 Hinges on ETF Investors

Bitcoin's recovery above $85,000 faces a crucial test after a sharp drop in bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike. A recent study by Glassnode shows that the strongest burst of forced buying occurred before the jobs report, with $50 million of short liquidations in just ten minutes at 04:20 UTC on Oct. 2, eight hours before the release.

The study's findings suggest that maintaining the higher price requires other buyers to absorb continuing offers. On Thursday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $102 million, showing that fund buying had returned before payrolls. However, the response to payrolls remains unresolved, with Friday's figures incomplete.

The latest observed Fed decision was a rate increase, raising the target range by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%-4%. Falling October hike odds leave that increase in place, but a cut would require a separate policy decision.

The Institute for Supply Management's September services report is scheduled for Monday, Oct. 5 at 10:00 a.m. ET, and its details will provide a fresh check on the rate outlook that emerged from payrolls.