Bitcoin Resilience Hinges on ETF Fund Flows and Liquidity

The July PCE data showed headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 3.3%, both exceeding the Federal Reserve's target levels, which raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 44%. A $2 billion cash inflow offset leverage effects in the market.

According to Woofun AI, this data reaction triggered futures markets, with options expirations and derivatives positioning structures becoming key factors influencing Bitcoin's trajectory. Li pointed out that against the backdrop of no substantive change in interest rate expectations, Bitcoin's movement now depends on ETF fund flows, spot market liquidity, and derivatives positioning structures.

The wallets of all sizes are accumulating positions, with Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank, analyzing that given strong services PMI but weak wage growth, core PCE aligning with consensus suggests that the decline in inflation stems from non-demand shocks, which is bullish for digital assets.

Glassnode emphasized that a breakout can only be confirmed if the closing price stabilizes above $83,300 accompanied by sustained ETF inflows. Igi Ioane, Chief Investment Officer at DWF Labs, stated that current data provides neither grounds for a rate hike nor a rate cut; the policy stance remains accommodative relative to inflation and employment data.