Bitcoin Returns May Be Lower But More Stable This Cycle

Cryptoquant's founder and CEO Ki Young Ju expects Bitcoin to deliver threefold to fivefold returns in the current bull cycle, followed by a milder downturn. This forecast is linked to smaller market extremes due to growing institutional ownership and a larger capital base.

Ju's analysis points to stronger holder profitability and fresh capital entering the market. He believes that institutional ownership could reshape Bitcoin's historical price cycles, reducing both extreme gains and losses.

The analyst notes that a larger market is dampening both the upside and downside extremes, as seen in the declining volatility of Bitcoin's price over time. This trend is supported by Fidelity Digital Assets' research, which documented Bitcoin's declining volatility in May 2024.