Bitcoin Sellers Drive Price Pressure as Break-Even Threshold Looms
Bitcoin's price struggles to break past $85,000, and investors who bought into last year's rally are selling their coins at a rate not seen before this year. According to Glassnode, these buyers have an average cost basis of around $97,000 for those holding from one to two years ago, and $89,000 for those holding from six to 12 months ago.
Both groups are underwater, meaning they're selling today at a loss. To reach break-even, the six-to-12-month group needs a gain of roughly 5%, while the one-to-two-year group needs nearly 15%. This concentrated selling pressure is driving down the price and making it harder for Bitcoin to rally.
Glassnode's data shows that holders who bought during the decline are not selling, which means the supply is coming from a single group of buyers rather than being spread across the holder base. Analysts like Ted Pillows believe that a weekly close above $87,500 is necessary for a strong rally, and if it doesn't happen, there's a decent chance of a correction below $80,000.
On the other hand, analysts like Willy Woo point out that Bitcoin has never been beaten by stocks over a four-year investment period, even for a buyer who entered at a top. He notes that Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate is 42% against 19% for the S&P 500.