Bitcoin Sellers Flood Market as Rally-Buyers Face Break-Even Pain
Bitcoin's recent price struggles have been accompanied by selling pressure from investors who bought into last year's rally, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. These investors are now moving more coins per day than at any other point this year, as the price approaches their break-even points.
Glassnode analyzed holders' average cost basis and found that two groups were underwater: those who bought one to two years ago had an average cost basis of about $97,000, while those who bought six to 12 months ago had a cost basis of around $89,000. At the current price of approximately $84,673, both groups need a gain of roughly 5% and nearly 15%, respectively, to reach break-even.
Notably, holders who purchased Bitcoin during its decline are not selling their coins, which has concentrated the supply in one group rather than across the holder base. Analyst Ted Pillows pointed out that a weekly close above $87,500 is necessary for a strong rally, and if this target is not met, there may be a chance of a correction below $80,000.
Glassnode's analysis also highlighted Bitcoin's relative strength against the S&P 500 (SPX), with its win rate moving above 50% last week. The firm noted that even in June, when Bitcoin's performance was weak, it still outperformed the index over a four-year investment period.