Bitcoin Set to Surge Past $100,000 as Treasury Yields Fuel Rally
Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy, believes Bitcoin could soon surge past $100,000, despite rising Treasury yields typically posing risks for risk assets. Farrell asserts that Bitcoin has already hit a durable cycle low and a new cycle has likely begun. While his earlier target of $115,000 seems out of reach this year, he remains optimistic about reaching $100,000 before 2026. As of Monday, Bitcoin traded near $86,000, meaning a move to $100,000 would represent a roughly 16% gain.
Farrell argues that the current high Treasury yields, which have hit their highest level since 2007, could paradoxically benefit Bitcoin. He points out that U.S. debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with a fiscal deficit running at 6% to 7% of GDP. Higher interest rates exacerbate these issues, as highlighted by a Congressional Budget Office report warning that a 1 percentage point rise in average interest costs would push the 30-year deficit projection from 9% to 14% of GDP.
The Treasury’s recent intervention, announced by Secretary Scott Bessent on August 19, involves larger buybacks of long-dated Treasuries, funded by issuing short-term bills. Farrell describes this as a form of stimulus that could lead to monetary debasement, ultimately driving Bitcoin’s outperformance. He notes that policymakers have followed this playbook for years, letting inflation run while suppressing borrowing costs. A further reduction in long-term bond issuance could act as an explosive catalyst for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Tokenization also plays a role in Farrell’s outlook. The SEC’s innovation exemption requires each tokenized stock to be paired with a stablecoin or money market fund, which could generate significant demand for short-term bills. Ethereum has been the strongest performer in the third quarter, while Solana remains a higher-risk play on the same theme. Farrell advises investors to stay patient, noting that a 10% pullback is possible but buyers will likely step in quickly on any dip. He suggests a medium to long-term aggressive approach for those not using leverage.