Bitcoin Shatters Four-Year Cycle Pattern, Analyst Urges Market Reactivity
Bitcoin's price action has broken historical patterns, according to well-known analyst Benjamin Cowen.
Cowen has unveiled an updated strategic model for Bitcoin in Q4 2026, urging investors to abandon forecasting and focus on the chart's current structure instead.
The trigger for this reassessment was Bitcoin's move above its May high on the weekly timeframe, effectively breaking the classic four-year cycle pattern.
Cowen outlines two possible outcomes: a bullish scenario where Bitcoin holds above its May peak, strengthening buyers' position and laying groundwork for an uptrend throughout Q4; or a bearish scenario where it falls back below the May high, amounting to a major fakeout and potentially leading to a seasonal correction.
Cowen stressed that, in current market conditions, trying to predict the exact direction of the price is counterproductive: 'You don't have to predict what happens; I think reacting is better in this case.'